The best team in the world
The way the ball bounces
New contenders
Winter 2007
Rugby, we're often told, is a simple game. It's good to remember this,
because the sport can sometimes become caught up in its own politics, just
as it can sometimes appear tangled on the field.
The Rugby World Cup to be played later this year in France is
approaching fast. And the first point to bear in mind is that it's a simple
matter to decide which team looks the most likely to win. Only one national
rugby team looks ready and able to take the cup, and that's New Zealand.
In every sense, the New Zealand team - known as the All Blacks - leads
the way. It may be true that not nearly as many people play rugby in New
Zealand as in England, New Zealand's population is not large (only four
million). All the same, the number of quality players at the All Blacks'
disposal leaves them spoilt for choice.
In fact, you could say that if the All Blacks are the number one team in the
world, the All Blacks second team are the number two, and so on down to
about their sixth team. It's only at that level that the New Zealanders start
having problems finding world-class talent.
At least three of the positions on the New Zealand team are filled by
men who can be described as being the best players in that position in the
world. More than that, you could say that the same three men are pioneers
in the way they play in their positions and setting standards that may well
determine the way the game goes in the future.
Dan Carter, the All Blacks' outside half, has no real competition today:
he is speedy, strong, thoughtful, inventive and resilient. And he has the
good looks to match. It's just not fair.
Richie McCaw, who plays as the All Blacks' open-side wing forward -
what the New Zealanders call the 'loosie' - is equally unmatched. He can
take all the pressure the big men in the forward rows can hand out, and he
can also take part in fluent set-plays with the backs in his own team. More
than that: he can also run flat-out with his nose two centimetres off the
ground.
Carl Hayman, the All Blacks' tight-head prop, is forcing commentators to
rethink the generally accepted notion that the New Zealanders are
vulnerable in the scrum, where the confrontation between the two teams'
forwards is most intense. In the scrum the burly Hayman is tenacious, and
he can also run pretty fast too. It might take him a while to get up to speed,
but like an old Daimler, once there, he's irresistible.
Behind every team is the coaching staff, of course. Graham Henry is the
All Blacks' head coach, with Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith his assistants.
All have worked overseas, gaining valuable experience, and they now form
a close-knit, highly experienced unit that oozes authority.
The numbers tell a lot of the story. Under Henry, the All Blacks had
played 36 games and lost just four - three times in South Africa and once in
Australia - up to the end of 2006. That's quite a run of victories, and very
few losses, in anyone's book.
Some people (including the French) might think that the fact that the
2007 Rugby World Cup is being played in France is an advantage to the
home nation, the champions of the 2006 Six Nations competition. But the
All Blacks comprehensively outclassed the home team when they played
two internationals against them in Lyon and Paris last year.
For any team playing against the All Blacks as they are now, being at
home is not enough. If you're looking for the most likely Rugby World Cup
winner this year, there is no point looking any further than New Zealand.
Except for one small thing. Rugby is played with a ball that is oval, not
circular, which means that it can bounce in very strange ways. And much
the same is true of the game itself too.
For one thing, the All Blacks are no strangers to going into World Cups
as the overwhelming favourites and coming unstuck. During the 1995
Rugby World Cup their giant wing Jonah Lomu ran over every defender that
dared stand before him. Even so, the All Blacks lost in the final to South
Africa.
Then in 1999 they lost to France in a Twickenham semi final that was
arguably the finest game ever played. Lomu again ran over everybody for
40 minutes, but then France mounted a second-half comeback that grew
and grew in momentum until even the mighty Lomu was forced into retreat.
In 2003 the All Blacks lost again at the semi-final stage, this time to
Australia. The Australians had started the competition as outsiders -
despite home advantage. But Australia ran New Zealand ragged in the semi
finals and then pushed England all the way into extra-time in the final. The
All Blacks had once again failed to deliver on their fearsome reputation.
Who, then, might upset the All Blacks this time round, during the 2007
World Cup in France? Certainly, none of the teams in the pool stages can
challenge them. Italy and Scotland will surely have a go, bringing to their
games the passion these teams show in the Six Nations competition, and
Scotland will even enjoy home advantage at Murrayfield. But it's a safe bet
that New Zealand won't be shaken by the lower order of the European
game.
After that, though, the New Zealanders will face a challenge. If they win
their pool C, they would face the runners-up of Pool D - that is, France,
Ireland or Argentina.
This D group is the killer. Ireland and Argentina are the new contenders
within the global elite, and both teams are capable of springing a surprise.
Ireland really should have beaten Australia during their match in Melbourne
at the last World Cup. They have continued to improve ever since, and may
well be able to come up with a surprise victory over the All Blacks.
In fact, these three teams all face a similar problem. Each of them will
have to put a lot of energy and commitment into qualifying for the quarter
finals while at the same time putting one of their number out of the
tournament. None of them are likely to have a lot of fuel left in the tank by
the time they face the All Blacks.
Ireland do have their own iconic pioneer players: in centre, Brian
O'Driscoll and second row, Paul O'Connell. But they will need to keep their
stars and everyone else in their squad in one piece if they are to have a
chance. Ireland have strength in certain positions, but will tax the stamina
of their squad before the knockout stages. The All Blacks have strength that
goes deep, deep down.
This was a factor during the 2003 Rugby World Cup. After their near
miss in the pool stages against Australia, the All Blacks were given a
horrible run-around by France in the quarter final. The question arises:
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